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Rajon Rondo is one of the most perplexing players in the NBA today. At times brilliant, at times insignificant. His supporters point to his incredible assist numbers and claim he is still a top point guard in the league, while his detractors point to his horrid shooting and claim he is overrated and overly reliant upon others. The truth is probably somewhere in between. However, this high variance in opinion is not just between fans, but also within NBA circles and general managers around the league. Is he a max player? Can he be a franchise player? What is he worth on the free agent market? All these unanswered questions are part of the reason he has been on the trade block for the past few seasons. It is hard to put an accurate valuation on him because he, maybe more than any other player in the NBA, is worth a different amount depending on what is around him. So what exactly is Rajon Rondo worth? To answer that, we need to look deeper at what type of player he actually is.
At his best, Rondo is an all-around force. He can get into the paint at will, setting up teammates for easy baskets around the rim, or open three-pointers on the perimeter. He is also very adept at finishing in traffic, especially in the playoffs where he takes more of the scoring burden upon himself. Defensively, his long arms and quick feet put him in position for steals and he can even hound taller players, such as Lebron James. He also has great instincts, often running to the spot where the rebound will fall, shortly after the shot goes up. This all-around game makes him a nightly triple-double threat.
However, Rondo is often unengaged in the game, seemingly uninterested in playing. He tends to stand around the perimeter, not taking it upon himself to drive into the lane to provide openings for teammates. He occasionaly refuses to shoot, trying instead to pad his assist totals. He is known to be ball-dominant, sometimes dribbling the ball for most of the shot clock before passing to a teammate who then has to force a contested shot. In 2013, Bill Simmons dubbed these two versions of Rondo as 'Basic Cable Rondo' and 'National TV Rondo.' Figuring out which Rondo is going to show up may be just as difficult as finding out where he fits in.
Where He Fits
A large part of the Rondo dilemma is finding a team where his strengths are more a positive than his weaknesses a negative. Rondo is not only a pass-first point guard, he is a pass first, second and third point guard. This generally means that he relies on his teammates more than your average player. When he was surrounded by future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, he thrived because the attention was focused elsewhere. Last season in Boston, he was surrounded by players such as Jeff Green, Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger. Not exactly the same trio of players. Despite this, according to data from SportVU Rondo was second in the league last season in points created per game, behind only Chris Paul. This was mostly due to the fact that Rondo had the ball in his hands. A lot. Rondo's 93.1 touches per game were the fourth most in the league.
While Rondo can pass with the best of them, he also scores with the worst. Rondo scored just .13 points per touch last season, which placed him 184th out of 192 players with at least 2500 touches. That scoring rate was identical to Nick Collison and Norris Cole, both seldom-used bench players.
In today's NBA, teams are placing a higher premium than ever on spacing and three-point shooting. Teams attempted more three pointers this season than ever before. One of Rondo's biggest problems in the past was that he was not willing to take three pointers, allowing his man to help off him in order to double others. Take a look at his shot chart from his best shooting season, 2009-10.
Rondo averaged 13.7 points on 50.8 percent shooting that season, both still career highs. Although he rarely shot from the outside, he was able to score so efficiently because his teammates garnered so much attention. Now, take a look at this past season, when he was surrounded by lesser players and had a greater burden on himself to put the ball in the basket.
His three point attempts spiked, and his percentages nearly everywhere on the court dropped. However, a team would be able to mask his poor shooting if it was able to make up for it elsewhere. Green is a deadly three point shooter from the corner and Bradley has improved his three point shooting as well. The Celtics also boast two young big men with three point range in Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. The drafting of James Young adds another wing shooter with great potential. However, Boston also took point guard Marcus Smart with the No. 6 overall pick in the draft, leading most to believe that Rondo is on his way out the door. Before he is traded however, the Celtics must prove Rondo is worth what they believe he is.
Have We Seen the Best of Rondo?
This past season was Rondo's worst since his rookie year. His Player Efficiency Rating was 15.34, good for 29th among point guards (the league average PER is 15.0). His basic statistics, 11.7 points, 9.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds, look good on paper, but he also shot 40.3 percent from the field and averaged just 1.3 steals per game, both career lows.
Most people will point out that Rondo played just 30 games this past season due to his recovery from the ACL tear, and this can explain his poor play. However, a troubling trend has emerged in the past two seasons: the Celtics have been better with Rondo on the bench than they have with him on the floor.
In the 2012-13 season, the Celtics were outscored by an average of 2.6 points per 100 possessions when Rondo played. With Rondo on the bench, the Celtics outscored their opponents by an average of .7 points per 100 possessions. This is further shown in the Celtics record with and without Rondo. With him they were just 18-20 and without him they finished 23-20 (they played just 81 games that season after the Boston Marathon Bombing caused the cancellation of 1 game). In 2013-14, the Celtics were again better with Rondo on the bench, as they were outscored by 6.5 more points per 100 possessions when Rondo was on the floor than when he was riding the pine.
Does the necessarily mean that the Celtics are better without Rajon Rondo? It's highly unlikely, but it does call into question how much of a positive he really is. In the six seasons prior, the Celtics were an average of 5.9 points per 100 possessions better with Rondo playing. At 28, it is quite possible Rondo has already shown us the best he has to offer.
This season, the Celtics are likely to trade Rondo, rather than re-sign him in the offseason. Signing him to a long-term deal would not make much sense after they gave Avery Bradley a four-year, $32 million deal this offseason and drafted another point guard in Smart. However, the Celtics may be reluctant to trade Rondo right now because they don't believe any of the offers they have received have been good enough. It is no secret that he struggled the past two seasons and teams around the NBA may also be wondering if we have seen his best. However, the Celtics are likely to let this play out until the trade deadline so that Rondo has a chance to play well, and in turn, increase his trade value.
Rondo is a player who has been on the verge of NBA superstardom for several years now, so on one level, it's understandable that there is growing impatience with him. There is something about a player perpetually on the verge that can really be frustrating. Carmelo catches a little bit if this too. But there is a lot more to the story of Rondo than is generally recognized. If you look at the way the Big Three have gone on after Rondo, it's a pretty clear indication that Rondo was carrying the Big Three team a lot more than has been recognized. All have played well, sure, but they've become role players. You could also see how important Rondo was to the Big Three Celtics when you look at how the team fared when he was injured in or for the playoffs - both times the Cs went down quick. The last two seasons of Rondo's career have been wrecked by two factors - his injury and the disorganized state of the team - but even so he has hardly been a role player. If you take away the first month of Rondo's return - I think it's six games - he actually averaged over 11 apg once again, despite having weak scorers around him and not being 100% himself. That's actually very impressive. He was on a league-leading pace once again, and remember, we were told that he could never succeed without the Big Three and that they were responsible for his gaudy assist numbers. That has certainly been disproved. Some very real questions have been raised about Rondo's game though. It's still not clear whether Rondo will take the leap to superstardom, or fade away, or something else. But for folks to blame Rondo for the team's struggles last year is fairly crazy, I think. That team was designed to tank. Ainge was going for a lottery pick no matter what. What was Rondo to do? Kill himself for a team going nowhere? The two most important things last year were achieved. One was that Rondo did not re-injure himself. The second was that he began to get his game back. As far as what happens next year is concerned, I think it is likely to be a disaster. Once again Rondo is not likely to be motivated to play hard knowing that he is almost certainly just marking time for a trade. What percentage is there for Rondo in driving up his trade value for Danny? Why would he want to make it easy for Danny to strip some team in exchange for him? I think things are at a point now where the future is very cloudy for young Rondo, who is no longer so young. I think his prime is being wrecked by a guy, Danny, who has had him on the trading block for years and continues to dangle him.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment! I agree with you that Danny Ainge has left him in some sort of trade purgatory, maybe making it less likely Rondo give 100% for an organization that doesn't truly want him. I also think that, at the end of the 'Big 3' era in Boston, he was their best player. However, if you look at the Celtics last year with Pierce and Garnett (the year Rondo tore his ACL) the Celtics were actually better with Rondo on the bench than on the court as far as point differential and also had a better record without him. And, remember, this was before his injury. So while I like your point that he has been pushing the lines of superstardom without actually ascending there, he does deserve some blame for sure. I think this is a defining season for him, where he will either take that next step or fall into the category where his name is bigger than his play.
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