Love at First Sight? Why the Cavaliers Should Not Trade for Kevin Love

David Sherman/Getty Images

You know the story by now. LeBron James has returned to his roots, signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers in his pursuit to bring a championship to a city that has not had one since Lyndon Baines Johnson was President. Since that moment, there has been rampant speculation that the Cavaliers next move would be to call up a certain team in Minnesota in pursuit of Kevin Love, who has expressed that he may not be so keen on returning to the Timberwolves next season. In fact, the two teams spoke and the Cavaliers even made an offer for Love – Dion Waiters, Anthony Bennett and a first-round pick – but to no avail. The Timberwolves insist Andrew Wiggins be included in the deal, and the Cavaliers insist they won’t deal him. Who will cave first? It shouldn’t be the Cavaliers.

With Love

If the Cavaliers do indeed get Love, it will likely be for Wiggins and some combination of Dion Watiers/Tristan Thompson/first round picks. I find it unlikely they would include last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett. Kevin Love is good, but two No. 1 overall picks would be a steep price to pay, even if Bennett was overweight, out-of-shape and generally just bad at basketball last season. The Cavaliers roster would then look something like this next season:

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Dion Waiters

SF: LeBron James

PF: Kevin Love

C: Anderson Varajao

Significant Bench Players: Anthony Bennett, Mike Miller

On paper, this looks like a tremendous lineup. But dig a little deeper, and it has holes. Kyrie Irving has missed 31, 23 and 10 games in his first three seasons. He also missed significant time during his only season at Duke. While the injuries aren’t long term, it is cause for concern.

Waiters is a solid player, but how much is the ball going to be in his hands with Irving, Love and LeBron on the floor as well? Probably not much. He’s also a minus defender, as his effort of that side of the ball comes and goes. Waiters would be better suited being the primary ball-handler/scorer for a bench unit.

At small forward is LeBron. If you haven’t heard, he’s good. But his defense slipped during his last season in Miami. When he wants to, he can still defend anyone on the court, but it costs him a lot of energy. At 29, and having played almost 40,000 minutes in his career, he’s better off not guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player 40 minutes a night.

I’m going to skip Love for now, and look at Anderson Varajao. As brittle as Irving has been, Varajao has been even more injury prone. He played 65 games this past season, but the three seasons before that? 25 games, 25 games, 31 games. LeBron has been persistent in saying that he loves to play with Varajao, but this might not be the Varajao he remembers. He’s still extremely active on defense and on the glass, but he’s not a good low-post defender. According to data from SportVU, among players that played in at least 50 games, and contested at least four shots at the rim per game last season, Varajao was ranked No. 69 out of 85 players in field goal percentage allowed on those shots. Also, if you’re wondering if the Cavs should opt to keep Thompson instead of Waiters in this fake trade: Thompson ranked No. 84 out of 85. Only Thaddeus Young was worse. By the way, that guy that the Cavaliers want to trade for, Kevin Love? He was No. 82 out of 85. Not much in the way of low-post defense on this roster.

Even with Kevin Love, the Cavaliers would struggle to win a title because they would struggle to stop anyone. Imagine how many points per game the Spurs would score on this defense. They may not miss a shot all game. Some may say that the offensive prowess Love would bring could overshadow the defensive inefficiencies, but look at these numbers:

Player A: 26.1 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 4.4 APG, .5 BPG, .8 SPG and .457/.376/.821 shooting splits

Player B: 24.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 BPG, .6 SPG and .518/.364/.797 shooting splits

Player A was Kevin Love this past season. Player B was Chris Bosh during his last season in Toronto. Let that sink in for a moment. The Miami Heat were a machine on offense, but lost the NBA Finals this season because of their defense. As much slack as Chris Bosh gets, he is a better defender than Kevin Love. Make no mistake, Love is a superior offensive player to Bosh, but is he so much better that the Cavaliers could defeat San Antonio? I don’t think so.

Without Love

So, if the Cavaliers do not trade for Love, where do they go from here? They aren’t title favorite as currently constructed, but they aren’t that far off either. By making a couple of smaller moves, they may be able to build a more well-rounded team. Imagine this lineup:

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Andrew Wiggins

SF: LeBron James

PF: Ryan Anderson

C: Larry Sanders

Significant Bench Players: Anthony Bennett, Dion Waiters, Mike Miller

We’ve already addressed Kyrie, so the same applies to this lineup as well. But now, Andrew Wiggins is the starting shooting guard with Waiters coming off the bench. The knock against keeping Wiggins is that he is not good enough right now and the Cavaliers should not rely on “potential.” However, he wouldn’t be asked to do a whole lot offensively. Cut to the basket, make open shots. That would the extent of his offensive duties. At Kansas he looked overwhelmed at times when asked to be the focal point of an offense. But now he’s going to play with LeBron James, something that helps many players find open shots at the right time. LeBron James is the elixir which cures all that ails an offensively challenged basketball player. And Wiggins isn’t as far away from being an impact player as some make him out to be. He averaged more than 17 points per game at Kansas with .448/.341/.775 shooting splits. Those are bound to go up with the amount of space he could find on the floor and averaging 12 to 14 points a game is not unreasonable.

It is the other side of the ball where he will help the most, however. Wiggins is an absolute beast on the defensive end, and he averaged more than a steal and a block per game for Kansas. He’s the guy that can take pressure off LeBron and guard Paul George or Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard all game long.

Two other names you see on that Cavaliers roster: Ryan Anderson and Larry Sanders. Anderson could probably be had for a first round pick. The Pelicans just gave up a first-round pick to acquire Omer Asik, so they could recoup that pick by giving away Anderson. Although they have been reluctant to part ways with him in the past, Asik and Anthony Davis will be the starting frontcourt now, leaving Anderson as an overpaid backup. Anderson only played 22 games last season, but he averaged almost 20 points per game and shot better than 40 percent from three. He provides the same shooting that Love does, albeit for a much cheaper price in terms of both money and assets.

Larry Sanders is another interesting player the Cavaliers should look at. He is the low-post defensive presence that LeBron James has never had. He has had some major problems in Milwaukee, but that may allow the Cavaliers to get him at a discounted price. The Cavaliers could offer another one of their first-round picks (the Cavaliers potentially have three first round picks next season) or even Tristan Thompson. Sanders is just 25 and really struggled last season but was second in the league in blocks per game two seasons ago. A relocation to Cleveland and the leadership of LeBron James could get his career back on track while also providing the Cavaliers with a defensive presence.

This starting lineup would feature three very strong defenders (LeBron, Wiggins, Sanders) while still maintaining great offensive potential. In order to make this roster work, the Cavaliers would likely have to include Varajao in one of the two deals, or cut him. They could not afford his $10 million salary on top of the $8.5 million Anderson and $11 million Sanders would be owed.

This lineup also retains amazing potential, as Irving, Wiggins, Waiters, Bennett (who could replace Anderson as the stretch four in two seasons) and Sanders are all 25 or younger. Throw in LeBron and veterans such as Mike Miller and potentially Ray Allen or Emeka Okafor, and you have a team that could challenge the Spurs for supremacy this season, and for many seasons after that.

(By the way, if the Cavaliers find a way to get Love without including Wiggins, they should absolutely do it in a heartbeat).