What to do with Rajon Rondo

Photo by Grant Halverson, Getty Images

          Rajon Rondo is one of the most perplexing players in the NBA today. At times brilliant, at times insignificant. His supporters point to his incredible assist numbers and claim he is still a top point guard in the league, while his detractors point to his horrid shooting and claim he is overrated and overly reliant upon others. The truth is probably somewhere in between. However, this high variance in opinion is not just between fans, but also within NBA circles and general managers around the league. Is he a max player? Can he be a franchise player? What is he worth on the free agent market? All these unanswered questions are part of the reason he has been on the trade block for the past few seasons. It is hard to put an accurate valuation on him because he, maybe more than any other player in the NBA, is worth a different amount depending on what is around him. So what exactly is Rajon Rondo worth? To answer that, we need to look deeper at what type of player he actually is.

          At his best, Rondo is an all-around force. He can get into the paint at will, setting up teammates for easy baskets around the rim, or open three-pointers on the perimeter. He is also very adept at finishing in traffic, especially in the playoffs where he takes more of the scoring burden upon himself. Defensively, his long arms and quick feet put him in position for steals and he can even hound taller players, such as Lebron James. He also has great instincts, often running to the spot where the rebound will fall, shortly after the shot goes up. This all-around game makes him a nightly triple-double threat.

          However, Rondo is often unengaged in the game, seemingly uninterested in playing. He tends to stand around the perimeter, not taking it upon himself to drive into the lane to provide openings for teammates. He occasionaly refuses to shoot, trying instead to pad his assist totals. He is known to be ball-dominant, sometimes dribbling the ball for most of the shot clock before passing to a teammate who then has to force a contested shot. In 2013, Bill Simmons dubbed these two versions of Rondo as 'Basic Cable Rondo' and 'National TV Rondo.' Figuring out which Rondo is going to show up may be just as difficult as finding out where he fits in.

Where He Fits

          A large part of the Rondo dilemma is finding a team where his strengths are more a positive than his weaknesses a negative. Rondo is not only a pass-first point guard, he is a pass first, second and third point guard. This generally means that he relies on his teammates more than your average player. When he was surrounded by future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, he thrived because the attention was focused elsewhere. Last season in Boston, he was surrounded by players such as Jeff Green, Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger. Not exactly the same trio of players. Despite this, according to data from SportVU Rondo was second in the league last season in points created per game, behind only Chris Paul. This was mostly due to the fact that Rondo had the ball in his hands. A lot. Rondo's 93.1 touches per game were the fourth most in the league.

          While Rondo can pass with the best of them, he also scores with the worst. Rondo scored just .13 points per touch last season, which placed him 184th out of 192 players with at least 2500 touches. That scoring rate was identical to Nick Collison and Norris Cole, both seldom-used bench players.

          In today's NBA, teams are placing a higher premium than ever on spacing and three-point shooting. Teams attempted more three pointers this season than ever before. One of Rondo's biggest problems in the past was that he was not willing to take three pointers, allowing his man to help off him in order to double others. Take a look at his shot chart from his best shooting season, 2009-10.

          Rondo averaged 13.7 points on 50.8 percent shooting that season, both still career highs. Although he rarely shot from the outside, he was able to score so efficiently because his teammates garnered so much attention. Now, take a look at this past season, when he was surrounded by lesser players and had a greater burden on himself to put the ball in the basket.

          His three point attempts spiked, and his percentages nearly everywhere on the court dropped. However, a team would be able to mask his poor shooting if it was able to make up for it elsewhere. Green is a deadly three point shooter from the corner and Bradley has improved his three point shooting as well. The Celtics also boast two young big men with three point range in Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. The drafting of James Young adds another wing shooter with great potential. However, Boston also took point guard Marcus Smart with the No. 6 overall pick in the draft, leading most to believe that Rondo is on his way out the door. Before he is traded however, the Celtics must prove Rondo is worth what they believe he is.

Have We Seen the Best of Rondo?

          This past season was Rondo's worst since his rookie year. His Player Efficiency Rating was 15.34, good for 29th among point guards (the league average PER is 15.0). His basic statistics, 11.7 points, 9.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds, look good on paper, but he also shot 40.3 percent from the field and averaged just 1.3 steals per game, both career lows.

          Most people will point out that Rondo played just 30 games this past season due to his recovery from the ACL tear, and this can explain his poor play. However, a troubling trend has emerged in the past two seasons: the Celtics have been better with Rondo on the bench than they have with him on the floor.

          In the 2012-13 season, the Celtics were outscored by an average of 2.6 points per 100 possessions when Rondo played. With Rondo on the bench, the Celtics outscored their opponents by an average of .7 points per 100 possessions. This is further shown in the Celtics record with and without Rondo. With him they were just 18-20 and without him they finished 23-20 (they played just 81 games that season after the Boston Marathon Bombing caused the cancellation of 1 game). In 2013-14, the Celtics were again better with Rondo on the bench, as they were outscored by 6.5 more points per 100 possessions when Rondo was on the floor than when he was riding the pine.

          Does the necessarily mean that the Celtics are better without Rajon Rondo? It's highly unlikely, but it does call into question how much of a positive he really is. In the six seasons prior, the Celtics were an average of 5.9 points per 100 possessions better with Rondo playing. At 28, it is quite possible Rondo has already shown us the best he has to offer.

          This season, the Celtics are likely to trade Rondo, rather than re-sign him in the offseason. Signing him to a long-term deal would not make much sense after they gave Avery Bradley a four-year, $32 million deal this offseason and drafted another point guard in Smart. However, the Celtics may be reluctant to trade Rondo right now because they don't believe any of the offers they have received have been good enough. It is no secret that he struggled the past two seasons and teams around the NBA may also be wondering if we have seen his best. However, the Celtics are likely to let this play out until the trade deadline so that Rondo has a chance to play well, and in turn, increase his trade value.

Four Point Play of the Day

Three points, one freebie:

Point 1: Hornets Got a Steal in Stephenson

Lance Stephenson, who turned down a 5-year, $44 million deal from the Pacers, just signed with the Charlotte Hornets for three years and $27 million. While Stephenson catches a lot of flak for being immature (most of it warranted), he's also a very talented player. Born Ready as he was once dubbed, was not, in fact, born ready. He came into the NBA very raw after just one season at Cincinnati. However, he has improved every season he has been in the league and has turned himself into a good all-around player. Stephenson is still prone to mistakes, especially turnovers, but at 23, he has room to improve. $9 million a year is what the Lakers just paid for Jordan Hill, so Stephenson on a similar contract is a steal for Michael Jordan and the Hornets. 

Point 2: Free Agency Not Over Yet

With Lance Stephenson now off the market, there are only two big names yet to find a home this offseason: Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe. The market for both is really unknown. Bledsoe was supposed to fetch a max contract, but the 76ers are now the only team left that has the means to offer one. Considering how they seem to be fine with tanking yet another season, that is not probable. Monroe was also in the market for a big deal this offseason but nothing ever materialized. A scenario that makes sense for both players? A double sign-and-trade between the Pistons and Suns. The Suns have guards aplenty (Goran Dragic, Isiah Thomas, Gerald Green, Tyler Ennis) but could use another reliable big man after losing Channing Frye to the Magic. The Pistons have Andre Drummond and Josh Smith but lack a reliable guard. From here, a double sign-and-trade with the Pistons getting Bledsoe and the Suns receiving Monroe would make sense for both teams. 

Point 3: Melo Pay Cut

Carmelo Anthony re-signed with the Knicks for 5-years, $124 million earlier this week. Some are claiming he helped the Knicks by taking a pay cut because he could have got $129 million. Really? He took $5 million less, spread out over five seasons. Who's that going to help sign, Eddy Curry? If you want to know what a real pay cut looks like, check out what Dirk Nowitzki just did for the Mavericks. Still an elite player, Dirk signed for 3-years, $25 million. He will make over the next three seasons almost what Kobe Bryant will make next season alone ($23.5 million). Talk about sacrificing for the team. 

Freebie: Random Awesome Video

In honor of Dwyane Wade re-signing with the Miami Heat, here is a throw-back of him being awesome. (h/t woutakasinistra for the video)

Love at First Sight? Why the Cavaliers Should Not Trade for Kevin Love

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You know the story by now. LeBron James has returned to his roots, signing a two-year deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers in his pursuit to bring a championship to a city that has not had one since Lyndon Baines Johnson was President. Since that moment, there has been rampant speculation that the Cavaliers next move would be to call up a certain team in Minnesota in pursuit of Kevin Love, who has expressed that he may not be so keen on returning to the Timberwolves next season. In fact, the two teams spoke and the Cavaliers even made an offer for Love – Dion Waiters, Anthony Bennett and a first-round pick – but to no avail. The Timberwolves insist Andrew Wiggins be included in the deal, and the Cavaliers insist they won’t deal him. Who will cave first? It shouldn’t be the Cavaliers.

With Love

If the Cavaliers do indeed get Love, it will likely be for Wiggins and some combination of Dion Watiers/Tristan Thompson/first round picks. I find it unlikely they would include last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett. Kevin Love is good, but two No. 1 overall picks would be a steep price to pay, even if Bennett was overweight, out-of-shape and generally just bad at basketball last season. The Cavaliers roster would then look something like this next season:

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Dion Waiters

SF: LeBron James

PF: Kevin Love

C: Anderson Varajao

Significant Bench Players: Anthony Bennett, Mike Miller

On paper, this looks like a tremendous lineup. But dig a little deeper, and it has holes. Kyrie Irving has missed 31, 23 and 10 games in his first three seasons. He also missed significant time during his only season at Duke. While the injuries aren’t long term, it is cause for concern.

Waiters is a solid player, but how much is the ball going to be in his hands with Irving, Love and LeBron on the floor as well? Probably not much. He’s also a minus defender, as his effort of that side of the ball comes and goes. Waiters would be better suited being the primary ball-handler/scorer for a bench unit.

At small forward is LeBron. If you haven’t heard, he’s good. But his defense slipped during his last season in Miami. When he wants to, he can still defend anyone on the court, but it costs him a lot of energy. At 29, and having played almost 40,000 minutes in his career, he’s better off not guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player 40 minutes a night.

I’m going to skip Love for now, and look at Anderson Varajao. As brittle as Irving has been, Varajao has been even more injury prone. He played 65 games this past season, but the three seasons before that? 25 games, 25 games, 31 games. LeBron has been persistent in saying that he loves to play with Varajao, but this might not be the Varajao he remembers. He’s still extremely active on defense and on the glass, but he’s not a good low-post defender. According to data from SportVU, among players that played in at least 50 games, and contested at least four shots at the rim per game last season, Varajao was ranked No. 69 out of 85 players in field goal percentage allowed on those shots. Also, if you’re wondering if the Cavs should opt to keep Thompson instead of Waiters in this fake trade: Thompson ranked No. 84 out of 85. Only Thaddeus Young was worse. By the way, that guy that the Cavaliers want to trade for, Kevin Love? He was No. 82 out of 85. Not much in the way of low-post defense on this roster.

Even with Kevin Love, the Cavaliers would struggle to win a title because they would struggle to stop anyone. Imagine how many points per game the Spurs would score on this defense. They may not miss a shot all game. Some may say that the offensive prowess Love would bring could overshadow the defensive inefficiencies, but look at these numbers:

Player A: 26.1 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 4.4 APG, .5 BPG, .8 SPG and .457/.376/.821 shooting splits

Player B: 24.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 BPG, .6 SPG and .518/.364/.797 shooting splits

Player A was Kevin Love this past season. Player B was Chris Bosh during his last season in Toronto. Let that sink in for a moment. The Miami Heat were a machine on offense, but lost the NBA Finals this season because of their defense. As much slack as Chris Bosh gets, he is a better defender than Kevin Love. Make no mistake, Love is a superior offensive player to Bosh, but is he so much better that the Cavaliers could defeat San Antonio? I don’t think so.

Without Love

So, if the Cavaliers do not trade for Love, where do they go from here? They aren’t title favorite as currently constructed, but they aren’t that far off either. By making a couple of smaller moves, they may be able to build a more well-rounded team. Imagine this lineup:

PG: Kyrie Irving

SG: Andrew Wiggins

SF: LeBron James

PF: Ryan Anderson

C: Larry Sanders

Significant Bench Players: Anthony Bennett, Dion Waiters, Mike Miller

We’ve already addressed Kyrie, so the same applies to this lineup as well. But now, Andrew Wiggins is the starting shooting guard with Waiters coming off the bench. The knock against keeping Wiggins is that he is not good enough right now and the Cavaliers should not rely on “potential.” However, he wouldn’t be asked to do a whole lot offensively. Cut to the basket, make open shots. That would the extent of his offensive duties. At Kansas he looked overwhelmed at times when asked to be the focal point of an offense. But now he’s going to play with LeBron James, something that helps many players find open shots at the right time. LeBron James is the elixir which cures all that ails an offensively challenged basketball player. And Wiggins isn’t as far away from being an impact player as some make him out to be. He averaged more than 17 points per game at Kansas with .448/.341/.775 shooting splits. Those are bound to go up with the amount of space he could find on the floor and averaging 12 to 14 points a game is not unreasonable.

It is the other side of the ball where he will help the most, however. Wiggins is an absolute beast on the defensive end, and he averaged more than a steal and a block per game for Kansas. He’s the guy that can take pressure off LeBron and guard Paul George or Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard all game long.

Two other names you see on that Cavaliers roster: Ryan Anderson and Larry Sanders. Anderson could probably be had for a first round pick. The Pelicans just gave up a first-round pick to acquire Omer Asik, so they could recoup that pick by giving away Anderson. Although they have been reluctant to part ways with him in the past, Asik and Anthony Davis will be the starting frontcourt now, leaving Anderson as an overpaid backup. Anderson only played 22 games last season, but he averaged almost 20 points per game and shot better than 40 percent from three. He provides the same shooting that Love does, albeit for a much cheaper price in terms of both money and assets.

Larry Sanders is another interesting player the Cavaliers should look at. He is the low-post defensive presence that LeBron James has never had. He has had some major problems in Milwaukee, but that may allow the Cavaliers to get him at a discounted price. The Cavaliers could offer another one of their first-round picks (the Cavaliers potentially have three first round picks next season) or even Tristan Thompson. Sanders is just 25 and really struggled last season but was second in the league in blocks per game two seasons ago. A relocation to Cleveland and the leadership of LeBron James could get his career back on track while also providing the Cavaliers with a defensive presence.

This starting lineup would feature three very strong defenders (LeBron, Wiggins, Sanders) while still maintaining great offensive potential. In order to make this roster work, the Cavaliers would likely have to include Varajao in one of the two deals, or cut him. They could not afford his $10 million salary on top of the $8.5 million Anderson and $11 million Sanders would be owed.

This lineup also retains amazing potential, as Irving, Wiggins, Waiters, Bennett (who could replace Anderson as the stretch four in two seasons) and Sanders are all 25 or younger. Throw in LeBron and veterans such as Mike Miller and potentially Ray Allen or Emeka Okafor, and you have a team that could challenge the Spurs for supremacy this season, and for many seasons after that.

(By the way, if the Cavaliers find a way to get Love without including Wiggins, they should absolutely do it in a heartbeat).