David Sherman/Getty Images
You know the
story by now. LeBron James has returned to his roots, signing a two-year deal
with the Cleveland Cavaliers in his pursuit to bring a championship to a city
that has not had one since Lyndon Baines Johnson was President. Since that
moment, there has been rampant speculation that the Cavaliers next move would
be to call up a certain team in Minnesota in pursuit of Kevin Love, who has
expressed that he may not be so keen on returning to the Timberwolves next
season. In fact, the two teams spoke and the Cavaliers even made an offer for
Love – Dion Waiters, Anthony Bennett and a first-round pick – but to no avail.
The Timberwolves insist Andrew Wiggins be included in the deal, and the
Cavaliers insist they won’t deal him. Who will cave first? It shouldn’t be the
Cavaliers.
With Love
If the
Cavaliers do indeed get Love, it will likely be for Wiggins and some
combination of Dion Watiers/Tristan Thompson/first round picks. I find it
unlikely they would include last year’s No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett.
Kevin Love is good, but two No. 1 overall picks would be a steep price to pay,
even if Bennett was overweight, out-of-shape and generally just bad at
basketball last season. The Cavaliers roster would then look something like
this next season:
PG: Kyrie
Irving
SG: Dion
Waiters
SF: LeBron
James
PF: Kevin
Love
C: Anderson Varajao
Significant Bench
Players: Anthony Bennett, Mike Miller
On paper,
this looks like a tremendous lineup. But dig a little deeper, and it has holes.
Kyrie Irving has missed 31, 23 and 10 games in his first three seasons. He also
missed significant time during his only season at Duke. While the injuries aren’t
long term, it is cause for concern.
Waiters is a
solid player, but how much is the ball going to be in his hands with Irving,
Love and LeBron on the floor as well? Probably not much. He’s also a minus
defender, as his effort of that side of the ball comes and goes. Waiters would
be better suited being the primary ball-handler/scorer for a bench unit.
At small
forward is LeBron. If you haven’t heard, he’s good. But his defense slipped
during his last season in Miami. When he wants to, he can still defend anyone
on the court, but it costs him a lot of energy. At 29, and having played almost
40,000 minutes in his career, he’s better off not guarding the opposing team’s
best offensive player 40 minutes a night.
I’m going to
skip Love for now, and look at Anderson Varajao. As brittle as Irving has been,
Varajao has been even more injury prone. He played 65 games this past season,
but the three seasons before that? 25 games, 25 games, 31 games. LeBron has
been persistent in saying that he loves to play with Varajao, but this might
not be the Varajao he remembers. He’s still extremely active on defense and on
the glass, but he’s not a good low-post defender. According to data from
SportVU, among players that played in at least 50 games, and contested at least
four shots at the rim per game last season, Varajao was ranked No. 69 out of 85
players in field goal percentage allowed on those shots. Also, if you’re
wondering if the Cavs should opt to keep Thompson instead of Waiters in this fake
trade: Thompson ranked No. 84 out of 85. Only Thaddeus Young was worse. By the
way, that guy that the Cavaliers want to trade for, Kevin Love? He was No. 82
out of 85. Not much in the way of low-post defense on this roster.
Even with
Kevin Love, the Cavaliers would struggle to win a title because they would
struggle to stop anyone. Imagine how many points per game the Spurs would score
on this defense. They may not miss a shot all game. Some may say that the offensive
prowess Love would bring could overshadow the defensive inefficiencies, but
look at these numbers:
Player A: 26.1 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 4.4 APG, .5
BPG, .8 SPG and .457/.376/.821 shooting splits
Player B: 24.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0
BPG, .6 SPG and .518/.364/.797 shooting splits
Player A was
Kevin Love this past season. Player B was Chris Bosh during his last season in
Toronto. Let that sink in for a moment. The Miami Heat were a machine on
offense, but lost the NBA Finals this season because of their defense. As much
slack as Chris Bosh gets, he is a better defender than Kevin Love. Make no
mistake, Love is a superior offensive player to Bosh, but is he so much better
that the Cavaliers could defeat San Antonio? I don’t think so.
Without
Love
So, if the
Cavaliers do not trade for Love, where do they go from here? They aren’t title
favorite as currently constructed, but they aren’t that far off either. By
making a couple of smaller moves, they may be able to build a more well-rounded
team. Imagine this lineup:
PG: Kyrie
Irving
SG: Andrew
Wiggins
SF: LeBron
James
PF: Ryan
Anderson
C: Larry Sanders
Significant Bench
Players: Anthony Bennett, Dion Waiters, Mike Miller
We’ve
already addressed Kyrie, so the same applies to this lineup as well. But now,
Andrew Wiggins is the starting shooting guard with Waiters coming off the bench.
The knock against keeping Wiggins is that he is not good enough right now and
the Cavaliers should not rely on “potential.” However, he wouldn’t be asked to
do a whole lot offensively. Cut to the basket, make open shots. That would the
extent of his offensive duties. At Kansas he looked overwhelmed at times when
asked to be the focal point of an offense. But now he’s going to play with LeBron
James, something that helps many players find open shots at the right time. LeBron
James is the elixir which cures all that ails an offensively challenged
basketball player. And Wiggins isn’t as far away from being an impact player as
some make him out to be. He averaged more than 17 points per game at Kansas
with .448/.341/.775 shooting splits. Those are bound to go up with the amount
of space he could find on the floor and averaging 12 to 14 points a game is not
unreasonable.
It is the
other side of the ball where he will help the most, however. Wiggins is an
absolute beast on the defensive end, and he averaged more than a steal and a
block per game for Kansas. He’s the guy that can take pressure off LeBron and
guard Paul George or Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard all game long.
Two other
names you see on that Cavaliers roster: Ryan Anderson and Larry Sanders.
Anderson could probably be had for a first round pick. The Pelicans just gave
up a first-round pick to acquire Omer Asik, so they could recoup that pick by
giving away Anderson. Although they have been reluctant to part ways with him
in the past, Asik and Anthony Davis will be the starting frontcourt now,
leaving Anderson as an overpaid backup. Anderson only played 22 games last
season, but he averaged almost 20 points per game and shot better than 40
percent from three. He provides the same shooting that Love does, albeit for a
much cheaper price in terms of both money and assets.
Larry
Sanders is another interesting player the Cavaliers should look at. He is the
low-post defensive presence that LeBron James has never had. He has had some
major problems in Milwaukee, but that may allow the Cavaliers to get him at a
discounted price. The Cavaliers could offer another one of their first-round
picks (the Cavaliers potentially have three first round picks next season) or
even Tristan Thompson. Sanders is just 25 and really struggled last season but was
second in the league in blocks per game two seasons ago. A relocation to
Cleveland and the leadership of LeBron James could get his career back on track
while also providing the Cavaliers with a defensive presence.
This starting
lineup would feature three very strong defenders (LeBron, Wiggins, Sanders) while
still maintaining great offensive potential. In order to make this roster work,
the Cavaliers would likely have to include Varajao in one of the two deals, or
cut him. They could not afford his $10 million salary on top of the $8.5
million Anderson and $11 million Sanders would be owed.
This lineup
also retains amazing potential, as Irving, Wiggins, Waiters, Bennett (who could
replace Anderson as the stretch four in two seasons) and Sanders are all 25 or
younger. Throw in LeBron and veterans such as Mike Miller and potentially Ray
Allen or Emeka Okafor, and you have a team that could challenge the Spurs for
supremacy this season, and for many seasons after that.
(By the way,
if the Cavaliers find a way to get Love without including Wiggins, they should
absolutely do it in a heartbeat).